资深央行记者警告：特朗普逼美联储降息为财政赤字买单，后果可能非常严重

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce deficit financing costs, a strategy that has garnered investor support and driven stock market highs. However, this "fiscal dominance" approach is typically associated with weak central banks in emerging markets and may lead to inflation, crises, and economic stagnation [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Strategy - Trump's recent demands for interest rate cuts are aimed at supporting his fiscal priorities, particularly financing the recently passed tax cuts [2]. - The Treasury is signaling a shift towards issuing short-term securities and treasury bills to avoid the risk of rising long-term interest rates impacting government financing costs [2][4]. - The concept of "fiscal dominance" occurs when central banks prioritize government financing over employment and inflation, often leading to negative economic outcomes [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, central banks and government finances have been intertwined, with institutions like the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve assisting governments in raising funds during wartime and economic crises [3]. - The Federal Reserve has generally avoided explicit coordination with fiscal policy since the 2008-2014 period, focusing on independent assessments of inflation rather than presidential directives [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - Current fiscal projections indicate that the deficit could rise from $1.8 trillion (6.4% of GDP) last year to $2.9 trillion (6.8% of GDP) by 2034, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget [4]. - The recently passed legislation could increase the deficit to $3 trillion (7.1% of GDP) over ten years, with potential extensions of temporary tax cuts pushing it to $3.3 trillion (7.9% of GDP) [5]. - Despite the large projected deficits, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has decreased from 4.55% in May to 4.35% recently, indicating market expectations of further rate cuts [5].