Group 1 - Recent gold prices have surpassed $3,344 per ounce amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [2] - A significant price disparity exists in the domestic market, with retail gold prices reaching 1,005 CNY per gram compared to a wholesale price of 756 CNY per gram, indicating a potential market imbalance [2] - Historical patterns suggest that July could be a pivotal month for gold prices, reminiscent of last year's fluctuations between $3,200 and $3,300 per ounce before a breakout [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a critical factor, with a recent employment report causing a drop in expectations for a September rate cut from 78% to 65%, which could impact gold prices significantly [4] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with potential for a "black swan" event that could cause gold prices to spike to $3,400 per ounce if Israel engages in ground operations [4] - Technical analysis indicates that the $3,400 per ounce level is a focal point, with previous attempts to breach this level failing, and a drop below $3,280 could lead to further declines [4] Group 3 - Institutional investors are adjusting their strategies, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,215 per ounce while advising clients to reduce positions above $3,350 per ounce [5] - Market participants are employing varied strategies, with some investing weekly to maintain an average cost below 760 CNY per gram, while others engage in high-frequency trading within specific price ranges [5] - The upcoming U.S. economic data is seen as a potential "ticking time bomb" for gold prices, with a core CPI below 2.8% possibly driving prices to $3,500 per ounce, while strong GDP growth could trigger a sell-off [5]
今日金价提示：做好心理准备，7月中旬金价可能重现历史走势
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-05 23:26