本周重磅日程：7月9日“对等关税”大限

Group 1: Economic Events and Data Releases - The week of July 7-13 will feature significant economic events, including the end of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension, the BRICS summit in Brazil, and the release of China's June CPI, PPI, and social financing data [3][4][6][8][10][11]. - The BRICS summit will take place from July 6-7 in Rio de Janeiro, focusing on enhancing cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries [8]. - The U.S. will announce new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% starting August 1, following the expiration of the negotiation period with several countries [6][7]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected increase of 106,000, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.24% to 4.12% [9]. - Market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in July, with a 75% chance of a cut in September, as the labor market remains robust [9]. Group 3: China Economic Data - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with urban prices stable and rural prices down by 0.4% [10]. - The PPI for June decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [10][11]. - Social financing data for May indicated an increase of 2.29 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 620 billion yuan [11]. Group 4: International Economic Reports - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report on July 11, with OPEC+ expected to agree on increasing oil production by approximately 550,000 barrels per day in August [12]. - Germany's June CPI unexpectedly fell to 2%, reaching the European Central Bank's target for the first time in nearly a year, while France's CPI was reported at 0.9% [13]. - The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 4.25%, with a notable division among policymakers regarding future rate cuts [14].