全面现房销售，还有多远？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing push for "existing house sales" in China's real estate market, highlighting the challenges and complexities involved in implementing such policies effectively [2][12]. Group 1: Current Policies and Trends - Hubei Jingmen has announced a policy to promote existing house sales starting in 2026, reflecting a growing recognition of the issues surrounding pre-sale housing [2]. - Over 30 provinces and cities in China have introduced policies related to existing house sales, with notable examples including Hainan and Xiong'an New Area [5][6]. - However, the actual implementation of these policies remains limited, with many being labeled as "pilot" programs or only applicable to "certain projects" [6][11]. Group 2: Challenges in Implementation - The term "principle" in policy discussions raises questions about flexibility and exceptions for developers, indicating potential difficulties in enforcing existing house sales [7]. - Developers face significant financial burdens as they must complete construction before selling, which is challenging in a sluggish real estate market [8][10]. - The cash flow issues for developers are exacerbated by the slow return on investment from existing house sales compared to pre-sales, which allow for immediate cash collection [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that a comprehensive shift to existing house sales is unlikely in the short term due to the complex relationships between developers, banks, and local governments [12][13]. - It emphasizes the need for a change in the overall financing model in the real estate sector to support the transition to existing house sales [13]. - The sentiment is that while the push for existing house sales is gaining traction, it may take a long time before it becomes a widespread reality [16].