刘元春、张军、连平、陆挺最新发声！

Group 1 - The 2025 China Macroeconomic Mid-Year Forum highlighted the need for a balance between short-term demand stabilization and long-term reforms to address the prominent supply-demand imbalance in the economy [1] - The report suggests accelerating the construction of a unified national market to foster a differentiated and healthy competitive environment, avoiding resource waste and inefficient allocation [1] - Experts at the forum emphasized the importance of high-quality economic development and proposed various strategies to enhance domestic demand and manage competition [1][2] Group 2 - Liu Yuanchun pointed out that traditional macroeconomic research models are inadequate for guiding current economic development due to the profound changes in the global landscape [3] - He advocated for a new approach that focuses on the microeconomic foundations of government, enterprises, and households, while also emphasizing the importance of the "new three drivers" of economic growth: basic research, industrial upgrading, and financial innovation [5] - Liu also stressed the need for macroeconomic governance to address "involution" competition, which has led to a decline in corporate profit margins despite falling costs [6] Group 3 - Zhang Jun highlighted the urgency of boosting domestic demand as both an immediate and long-term strategy, emphasizing the need for stable markets, expectations, and investment [10] - He proposed reforms in income distribution and social security systems to ensure steady growth in residents' consumption, including improving wage mechanisms and establishing a unified basic social security system [10][11] - Zhang also noted the importance of continuing supply-side structural reforms to enhance supply quality, which is essential for promoting demand-side reforms [11] Group 4 - Lian Ping discussed the complex interplay of structural opportunities and challenges facing the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, influenced by both certain certainties and uncertainties in the external environment [13][15] - He emphasized the need for China to maintain strategic determination and leverage its economic resilience and innovation capabilities to navigate external complexities [15] Group 5 - Lu Ting indicated that while the first half of 2025 showed decent economic performance, significant downward pressure on growth and deflation risks are expected in the second half [17] - He identified challenges such as a severe export outlook, ongoing issues in the real estate market, and potential declines in investment and production due to capacity adjustments [19] - Lu suggested a multi-faceted policy approach to address these challenges, including reforms in the real estate sector and improvements in social security to support consumption [19]