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关税大限将至,投资者为何选择视而不见?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-06 09:09

Group 1 - Global investors are responding with a calm attitude towards the new tariffs announced by President Trump, with various moderate scenarios already priced in by the market [1][2] - The new tariff rates will range from 10% to 70%, with the upper limit significantly higher than the previously announced 50% [1][2] - The market's reaction to tariff news has become more composed, as investors believe the deadline has enough "flexibility" and that the worst-case scenarios are no longer a concern [1][2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and effective dates continues, with only limited agreements reached with the UK and a principle agreement with Vietnam [2] - The EU aims to reach an agreement by July 9, but if negotiations fail, it will take countermeasures to protect its economy [2] - Japan is prepared to defend its interests firmly and is anticipating various possible outcomes in the tariff negotiations [2] Group 3 - The recent tax and spending bill signed into law has led to concerns about increasing the US debt by over $3 trillion, impacting bond investors [3] - Tariff-related inflation risks are putting pressure on US Treasury bonds and the dollar, affecting Federal Reserve policy expectations [3] - The dollar index has experienced its worst performance since 1973, dropping approximately 11% this year, with a 6.6% decline since April 2 [3] Group 4 - Market expectations are adjusting to the possibility of tariffs at 35%, 40%, or higher, while a comprehensive 10% tariff is anticipated [5] - There is cautious optimism regarding the outlook for US stocks, with close monitoring of interest rate changes [5]