Core Viewpoint - Cambodia has signed a non-reciprocal tariff agreement with the United States, agreeing to implement a 49% import tariff, marking it as the second Southeast Asian country to accept such conditions after Vietnam [1][2]. Economic Impact - In 2022, Cambodia's total exports to the U.S. reached $26.2 billion, accounting for 40% of its overall exports, with textile and apparel products making up 76.8% of this total, supporting 862,000 jobs [2][4]. - The World Bank estimates that failure to complete negotiations by the deadline could lead to a 3.2% decline in GDP and the loss of at least 250,000 jobs [2]. Negotiation Dynamics - The economic vulnerability of Cambodia's export-driven economy forced it to accept unfavorable terms in the tariff agreement, with U.S. pressure enhancing its negotiating leverage [4][6]. - The new tariff regulations effective from August 1 impose punitive tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on countries that do not reach an agreement [6]. Supply Chain Restructuring - The U.S. aims to reshape supply chain dynamics, with specific clauses requiring traceability of textile raw materials, as 34% of Cambodia's textile inputs come from China [8][10]. - Similar measures have been seen in Vietnam, where the U.S. imposed a 40% additional tariff on transshipped goods [10]. Regional Trade Agreements - The U.S. is pursuing a systematic regional strategy, with Indonesia also negotiating trade agreements that could grant the U.S. control over strategic resources in exchange for tariff reductions on 1,700 products [11]. - The nickel, a key material for electric vehicle batteries, is highlighted as a critical resource in these negotiations [12]. Economic Sovereignty - Although Cambodia has secured a three-year transition period, the market opening requirements of the agreement may undermine its economic sovereignty [14][15]. - The agreement includes joint monitoring mechanisms and data-sharing clauses, effectively creating a control chain over the supply chain [15]. Broader Implications - As more Southeast Asian countries join this network of agreements, the regional industrial collaboration model may undergo fundamental changes, posing challenges and new opportunities for Chinese manufacturing [17][19]. - The current international trade rules are undergoing significant transformations, with Cambodia's agreement highlighting the asymmetry in rule-making power due to economic development disparities [23].
继越南之后,柬埔寨与美国达成对等49%的关税协议,释放什么信号
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-06 09:36