鲍威尔最新表态：都是因为特朗普，所以才没降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is facing unprecedented complexity due to the impact of tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, which are significantly influencing interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Monetary Policy - The announcement of new tariffs in April has led to a comprehensive adjustment of the Federal Reserve's economic forecasting models, necessitating a reevaluation of inflation prospects [3]. - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from June indicate that policymakers discussed the effects of tariffs in depth, ultimately deciding to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time [3][5]. - The policy statement highlighted "changes in the global trade environment" as a new risk factor [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's remarks, the bond market reacted with a 5 basis point drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which later rebounded by 3 basis points, reflecting investor confusion regarding policy outlook [5]. - The U.S. labor market remains tight with an unemployment rate at a historical low of 3.8%, while manufacturing activity indices have been below the neutral level for two consecutive months [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for imported goods increased by 1.2% month-over-month, significantly above historical averages, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Expectations - Despite Powell's current stance against rate cuts, market expectations suggest a 65% probability of a rate cut in September, with uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the cut [6]. - Powell emphasized the need for data reliance and policy flexibility in response to the evolving trade policy landscape, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [8]. - The intertwining of political and economic factors is expected to complicate future monetary policy decisions, as noted by a former Fed official [9].