原油市场：国内SC跳涨，全球供需呈紧平衡

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is exhibiting regional differentiation, with domestic SC contracts showing a significant increase while international oil prices experience slight declines [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Domestic SC main contract rose by 1.63% to 506.3 yuan/barrel, reaching a five-day high [1] - International oil prices WTI and Brent fell by 0.52% and 0.43% respectively [1] - The SC premium over Brent expanded from $2.45 to $1.85, while the SC-WTI premium surged by 77.78% to $3.52, indicating increased raw material procurement willingness in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ announced a continuous production increase plan of 1.2 million barrels per day for three months, but Barclays reported that remaining production capacity in oil-producing countries may limit actual increments [1] - U.S. refinery utilization rates remain high at 93%, with Barclays raising summer oil demand growth expectations to 130,000 barrels per day [1] - Diesel crack spreads have widened to $28/barrel, reflecting strong industrial energy demand [1] Group 3: Market Balance and Future Outlook - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory has fallen below the five-year average to 380 million barrels, with the Cushing delivery point's inventory accumulation slowing to an average of 250,000 barrels per day [1] - The strong performance of SC relative to external markets suggests expectations for China's strategic reserve replenishment [1] - The global market is characterized by insufficient supply elasticity but unexpectedly resilient demand, leading to a tight balance [1] - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain volatile, awaiting guidance on OPEC's August production policy [1]