凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：美联储官员警示通胀粘性风险

Group 1 - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, emphasizes the need for patience in monetary policy amidst a resilient macroeconomic backdrop, suggesting that recent strong employment data supports this view [1][5] - Bostic highlights the unique nature of current price pressures, indicating that cost increases from trade policy adjustments may gradually permeate over the next twelve months, potentially leading to a more persistent inflation environment [3] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding interest rate paths, with some officials expecting at least two rate cuts this year while others advocate for maintaining current rates throughout the year [3][5] Group 2 - Recent employment data shows stronger-than-expected job growth and a slight decrease in unemployment, reinforcing Bostic's assertion that the labor market has not shown signs of deterioration [5] - Bostic warns about the implications of rising public debt, suggesting that increasing debt servicing costs could crowd out other economic activities and have substantial impacts on prices and employment in the future [5] - In the face of policy uncertainty, Bostic advocates for a cautious approach, indicating that the Federal Reserve should wait for clearer conditions before making decisions, which has led to a high probability of maintaining current rates in July [7]