黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2025.7.6）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a three-day upward trend driven by safe-haven demand and a weak dollar, but faced a pullback due to stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, ultimately closing the week with a slight gain [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 111,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This data weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant drop in gold prices on Thursday [2] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy, with a 90-day tariff suspension period ending on July 9, has supported gold as a safe-haven asset while increasing market volatility [2] - The U.S. Congress passed a tax reform bill that will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with total U.S. debt exceeding $37 trillion. This rising sovereign debt diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and supports a long-term upward trend for gold [2] - Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and progress in Iran nuclear negotiations, have reduced the geopolitical risk premium, putting some pressure on gold prices [2] Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key events to watch next week include the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision on July 8, the release of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes on July 9, and the weekly initial jobless claims data on July 10. These events may provide insights into monetary policy and economic outlook, impacting gold prices [3] - July 9 marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, with ongoing negotiations with major economies like Japan and India progressing slowly. The market anticipates potential threats of increased tariffs to compel concessions from other countries, although an extension of the deadline is also likely [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend this week, closing with a bullish candlestick, aligning with the expectation of a near-term bottom and subsequent rebound [4] - The current market is in a corrective phase following a rise from a low of 3347 to a high of 3365, indicating a second wave adjustment within a larger upward structure. The focus will be on the progress of this correction, with anticipation for a subsequent third wave upward movement [5][7] - After the completion of the second wave rebound, attention will shift to potential opportunities in the third wave downward movement, which is a key focus for upcoming trading strategies [8]