需求疲软 PVC难改弱势格局

Core Viewpoint - The PVC industry is experiencing significant losses due to declining demand from the real estate sector and ongoing price drops, leading to a weak supply-demand balance and continued pressure on prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - PVC prices have dropped by 60% from their peak in October 2021, with no clear signs of recovery as of July 6, 2025 [1]. - The average loss for domestic acetylene-based PVC producers is 520 yuan per ton, indicating high levels of financial strain [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The operating load rate of domestic PVC production enterprises is at 78.09%, a slight decrease of 1.64 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite stable weekly production levels around 460,000 tons, the profitability of caustic soda has declined, leading to expectations of reduced PVC production loads in the future [2][4]. - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 575,200 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.03% but a year-on-year decrease of 38.06% [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector continues to show weak performance, with declines in investment, sales area, new construction, and completion rates, negatively impacting overall PVC demand [3]. - Downstream enterprises are experiencing low order volumes, with the operating rate for PVC pipe sample enterprises estimated at 38.56%, down 1.57 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - PVC exports have increased significantly, with a total export volume of 1,965,900 tons from January to May 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 52.26% [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The PVC market is characterized by weak supply and demand, coupled with high loss pressures, suggesting that short-term price movements will likely remain weak and volatile [4].