经历跌宕六个月，美股牛市信仰愈发坚挺! 2025下半场“Buy America”继续席卷全球?

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has ended the first half of 2025 with a record high, reflecting a strong belief in a long-term bull market among investors, driven by a rebound from a significant drop in April and ongoing enthusiasm for AI investments [1][4][5]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant rebound, recovering over 19% from its previous high in April, largely due to "buying the dip" strategies and a reduction in fears regarding the impact of tariffs [1][5]. - As of the last market close, the S&P 500 index reached 6,279 points, with forecasts suggesting it could rise to 6,850 points within the next 12 months, indicating a potential increase of approximately 9% [8][9]. Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing bullish sentiment among both institutional and retail investors, with many viewing market dips as buying opportunities [5][6]. - Retail investors have shown a strong commitment to the market, with record net inflows, particularly noted on April 3 when net purchases reached $3 billion [5]. Economic Indicators - Recent positive non-farm payroll data has alleviated concerns about a broader economic slowdown due to tariffs, contributing to the market's upward momentum [4]. - Analysts suggest that the performance of the S&P 500 will continue to be influenced by macroeconomic policies and corporate earnings outlooks, with many expecting a favorable environment for stock performance in the second half of 2025 [6][8]. Forecasts and Predictions - BMO Capital Markets raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,100 to 6,700 points, citing strong fundamentals driven by unprecedented AI capital expenditures [8]. - CFRA Research has also adjusted its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,525 points, reflecting a more optimistic outlook compared to earlier predictions made in April [9][10]. - Analysts predict that the current bull market could continue, with historical data suggesting that significant rebounds often lead to further gains in the following year [10].