Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, primarily driven by U.S. tariff policies, which created both upward and downward pressures on copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Phases - Phase 1 (Early January to Late March): Initial strength in copper prices was attributed to expectations of U.S. tariffs on imported copper, leading to a peak price of 83,000 yuan, the highest in over a year [3] - Phase 2 (Late March to Early April): The implementation of unexpected reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from other countries led to a sharp decline in copper prices, with the lowest point reaching 71,320 yuan, marking an eight-month low [4] - Phase 3 (Mid-April to Late June): Negotiations between the U.S. and other countries created temporary optimism, but ongoing uncertainties kept copper prices in a narrow range, with a gradual recovery influenced by a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [5] Group 2: Tariff Impact and Global Trade - The U.S. tariff policies have increased trade barriers and geopolitical tensions, leading to heightened uncertainty in the market, particularly after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [6] - The expectation of tariffs on copper has created a "siphoning effect," where copper flows towards the U.S. due to higher prices, with COMEX copper inventories rising significantly while LME inventories declined [10][12] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing and level of U.S. tariffs on copper continues to influence market dynamics, with traders remaining active in anticipation of policy changes [12] Group 3: Smelting and Processing Fees - The processing fees for copper have dropped to negative values, creating significant pressure on smelting operations, with the processing fee reaching -40 USD per dry ton [9] - Despite the challenges, smelting plants have maintained production through adjustments in raw material sourcing and the contribution of by-product revenues [9] - The long-term contracts for copper concentrate processing fees have been locked in at historical lows, raising concerns about the sustainability of smelting operations moving forward [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to remain influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, which will continue to affect demand expectations and market sentiment [13] - The tightening supply of copper ore and the operational challenges faced by smelting plants may lead to potential production cuts, which could provide upward support for copper prices [13] - The timing and impact of U.S. tariff policies on copper will be critical to monitor, as the current window for copper flow to the U.S. remains open until definitive measures are enacted [13]
关税政策引发铜市巨震 未来走向是明是暗？【期市半年报】
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-07 01:42