OPEC+超预期增产54.8万桶，特朗普70%关税威胁，油价跌破67美元

Group 1: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day [1][3] - This marks a significant shift in OPEC+'s strategy from production cuts to actively ramping up capacity, following the removal of a 2.2 million barrels per day cut agreement in April [3] - The organization is considering another increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September, potentially allowing it to meet its 2023 supply targets a year ahead of schedule [3] Group 2: Global Oil Market Conditions - The global oil market is showing signs of oversupply, with Brent crude futures prices down 8.5% since 2025, influenced by increased production from OPEC+ and other regions [3] - The International Energy Agency anticipates a significant oversupply in the market later this year, with Wall Street predicting oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel or lower in the fourth quarter [3] Group 3: Trade Uncertainty Impact - President Trump's new tariff threats are expected to weaken market risk appetite, with potential tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% affecting a wide range of countries [4] - This uncertainty may disrupt global supply chains and suppress energy consumption demand in major economies, raising concerns about the impact on global economic recovery [4] - The combination of weak demand and increased supply poses significant challenges to the balance of the oil market, with WTI crude falling to $66.50 per barrel [4]