美“对等关税”暂停期限将至，亚太股市涨跌互现丨东盟观察

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed performance last week, influenced by the impending deadline for the US "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - Southeast Asian markets mostly rose, with Thailand's SET index leading with a weekly increase of 3.47% [1] - The Ho Chi Minh index in Vietnam rose by 1.14%, while the Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia fell by 0.47% [1] Economic Factors - The upcoming deadline for US tariffs is affecting market sentiment, with trade negotiations impacting stock performance [1][4] - The weakening US dollar and lower demand for US Treasury bonds are expected to attract some capital to Asian markets [2] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam has boosted market confidence, contributing to the rise in the Ho Chi Minh index [3] Country-Specific Insights - Singapore's Straits Times Index saw a 1.2% increase, benefiting from its status as an international financial center amid trade uncertainties [3] - Thailand's stock market is recovering due to reduced domestic political risks, leading to a notable upward trend [3] - The economic growth rates of Southeast Asia's major economies are slowing, with Indonesia's GDP growth at 4.87%, Malaysia at 4.4%, and Singapore at 3.9% [5][6] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the Asia-Pacific stock market will likely maintain a volatile upward trend, influenced by trade negotiations and US monetary policy adjustments [4] - The World Bank forecasts a slowdown in economic growth for the East Asia and Pacific region, with Southeast Asian countries facing significant pressure due to external trade uncertainties [6][7] Sector Performance - The Korean stock market has performed well, with the composite index up nearly 30% this year, driven by expectations around stablecoin policies and pro-shareholder government initiatives [8] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 0.85%, ending a three-week upward trend, amid concerns over US-Japan trade negotiations [8]