黄金当前不宜急进，易被套高位，建议观望等待

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing significant volatility, oscillating between 760 to 780 yuan in July, with a recent spike to 780 yuan followed by a drop to 770 yuan, raising concerns about market entry timing [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Key technical levels for gold are identified: 3250 USD as a critical support level, with potential declines to 3120 USD if breached; 3400 USD acts as a resistance level; and 3348 USD serves as an upper limit for rebounds [1] - Institutional views are divided: Goldman Sachs and UBS are bullish, predicting gold prices could reach 3500 USD by year-end, while the World Gold Council warns that strong US GDP growth could push prices down to 3000 USD [1] - Global central banks purchased a record 493 tons of gold in Q2, indicating a strong demand despite some countries like China pausing purchases [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Two major events impacting the market are highlighted: disappointing non-farm payroll data with only 147,000 new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, which led to a rise in the dollar and a corresponding drop in gold prices [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, has not significantly affected gold prices unless a full-scale war occurs [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Retail investors are advised against blindly buying below 750 USD due to high risks, suggesting a "barbell strategy" of investing in physical gold while using options for hedging [2] - Investors should monitor three indicators: COMEX net long positions falling below 28%, the dollar rising above 105, and a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, as any of these could trigger stop-loss actions [2]