沪指3500点附近震荡，30年国债ETF博时(511130)交投活跃，机构高呼逢低做多

Market Overview - Major A-share indices weakened, with the ChiNext Index down over 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.59%. Nearly 2,900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined [1] - Government bond futures mostly opened higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.04%, the 10-year main contract up 0.01%, the 5-year main contract up 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract flat [1] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) opened high and fluctuated throughout the day, with a slight increase of 3 basis points and a trading volume of nearly 600 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Overnight SHIBOR, although showing a small decrease, remains at a low level around 1.3000%, below last year's peak, suggesting a shift in institutional strategies as the previous heavy bets on low interest rates are being corrected [1] - Beijing Shichuang Futures noted that since mid-April 2025, government bond futures have been lackluster, with low volatility and limited opportunities for both bulls and bears, but a potential upward space is expected in Q3 [1] Economic Context - The average loan interest rate in Q1 2025 remains high at 3.75%, with the actual interest rate estimated at 4.52%, which is considered restrictive for the economy, especially in a deflationary context [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been tempered, with only a 10 basis point cut occurring on May 7, despite earlier predictions of a 30-40 basis point reduction [2] - Factors influencing the slow pace of rate cuts include stable economic conditions, minimal tariff impacts, ongoing fiscal policy effects, and external pressures from the US Federal Reserve's delayed rate cuts [2] Future Outlook - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in Q3, which could lead to a more aggressive domestic monetary policy response, potentially benefiting government bond futures [3] - The Boshi 30-year government bond ETF, established in March 2024, tracks the "Shanghai 30-Year Government Bond Index" and is sensitive to interest rate changes, making it a noteworthy investment option [3]