碳酸锂：上半年先扬后抑，下半年或4.5-7万震荡探底

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, lithium carbonate futures experienced fluctuations, with prices expected to maintain a volatile downward trend in the second half due to supply surplus and demand challenges [1] Price Trends - In Q1 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices were stable, initially rising from 77,800 CNY/ton to 81,680 CNY/ton (an increase of 4.99%) before falling back to 74,160 CNY/ton [1] - In Q2, prices dropped significantly from 74,500 CNY/ton to 58,460 CNY/ton (a decrease of 21.53%) due to declining demand amid the US-China tariff conflict [1] - Key price movements included a drop of over 10% from 81,680 CNY/ton to around 73,000 CNY/ton in early 2025, and a near 20% decline from 73,000 CNY/ton to 58,460 CNY/ton in April-May [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to remain oversupplied, with a projected total supply of 1.65 million tons of LCE in the second half of 2025 [1] - Demand is primarily driven by the growth in electric vehicles and energy storage, with an estimated 16.5 million new energy vehicles expected to be sold in China and 23 million globally in 2025 [1] - The overall lithium carbonate consumption growth rate is projected to be around 22% for the year [1] Inventory Levels - Inventory levels increased from a low of 136,800 tons in January to 136,800 tons by the end of June, primarily due to rising inventories at smelting plants [1] - Downstream inventory growth has been modest compared to the beginning of the year, remaining stable at 30,000 to 40,000 tons [1] Strategic Recommendations - Lithium salt manufacturers are advised to consider hedging opportunities, while downstream companies may opt for spot purchasing [1] - Speculators are encouraged to short-sell during price peaks [1]