帮主郑重解读：7月9日关税大限最后两天 全球贸易谈判最新博弈进展

Summary of Key Points Group 1: Countries with Agreements - The UK has successfully negotiated a trade agreement with the US, reducing auto tariffs to 10% and eliminating aerospace tariffs, although steel exports still face a 25% tariff which could double to 50% if negotiations fail [3]. - India is close to finalizing a small trade agreement with an average tariff of 10%, but is insisting on concessions from the US regarding steel and auto tariffs while the US demands further opening of India's agricultural market [3]. - Vietnam has seen a significant reduction in base tariffs from 46% to 20%, but faces a "transshipment trap" where third-party goods routed through Vietnam could incur a 40% penalty, while Vietnam must offer zero tariffs on US goods [3]. Group 2: Ongoing Negotiations - The EU has taken a firm stance, demanding the US lower baseline tariffs starting July 9, particularly on autos and steel/aluminum products, and has prepared a €210 billion retaliation list along with a €95 billion additional tariff plan [4]. - Canada has preemptively canceled its digital services tax to restart negotiations with the US, aiming for an agreement by July 21, although it has not yet budged on the 50% tariff on over-quota steel [4]. - South Korea and Japan are struggling with auto tariffs, with South Korea emphasizing the importance of the auto industry and Japan facing threats of tariffs up to 30%-35% while being pressured to open its agricultural market [4]. Group 3: US Trade Actions - The US has signed 12 trade letters, with new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% set to take effect on August 1, indicating a complex internal debate on tariff strategies [5]. - The US Agriculture Secretary hinted at potential exemptions for certain agricultural products that cannot be grown in the US, suggesting a strategy to appease developing countries [5]. - The overall situation reflects a global trade chess game, with countries calculating their gains and losses, and the high tariffs potentially impacting the global supply chain and ultimately the US economy [5].