高粱市场半年度总结：上半年行情上涨为主 下半年或高开低走

Core Viewpoint - The domestic japonica sorghum market prices are expected to show a strong fluctuation in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase compared to the previous year due to supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, japonica sorghum prices in China exhibited a trend of moderate increase, aligning with previous market predictions [2] - By June 30, 2025, the price of japonica sorghum in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, peaked at 3,250 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 640 yuan/ton or 24.52% since the beginning of the year [2] - The consumption of japonica sorghum stocks is accelerating, with farmers' remaining stocks nearing depletion, which supports price stability [2] Group 2: Import Dynamics - The import volume of American sorghum has significantly decreased due to reciprocal tariffs, with a forecasted total import of 2.0827 million tons for the first half of 2025, down 54.51% year-on-year [4] - From January to May 2025, the total import volume of sorghum in China was 1.682 million tons, a decrease of 53.90% year-on-year, with American sorghum imports dropping by 75.55% [4] - In contrast, imports from Argentina and Australia increased significantly, with growth rates of 189.99% and 115.31% respectively [4] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The white liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with overall consumption performance being lackluster [5] - The demand for sorghum in the feed industry remains weak, with a projected consumption of 4.97 million tons for the 2024/25 season, reflecting a decline of 36.04% year-on-year [6] - The white liquor sector is experiencing a shift from government consumption to mass-market demand, with the proportion of government consumption dropping below 5% [8] Group 4: Price Forecasts - The price of japonica sorghum is expected to follow a seasonal pattern, with higher probabilities of price increases in July and August, followed by potential declines in September and October due to increased supply [9] - The average price of japonica sorghum in Chifeng is projected to be around 3,208 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 13.15% based on anticipated supply reductions [11] - Overall, the price range for japonica sorghum in the second half of the year is expected to be between 2,900 and 3,400 yuan/ton, influenced by seasonal demand and supply dynamics [12]