四国联手在华盛顿搞稀土，中国反手放大招，看谁敢动一下

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a rare earth supply chain by the US, Japan, Australia, and South Korea aims to challenge China's dominant position in the rare earth market, which is characterized by China's near-monopoly on critical minerals [1][5]. Group 1: Rare Earth Supply Chain Development - The four countries signed a memorandum to collaborate in breaking China's near-monopoly in the rare earth sector, which is crucial for various technologies [1]. - A leaked document from the White House identified 35 minerals as "critical," with all important rare earth elements included, highlighting China's significant role in the global supply chain [1]. Group 2: China's Response and Production Control - In response to the memorandum, China's Ministry of Natural Resources and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a 7.2% increase in the total control indicators for rare earth mining and separation for 2024, marking the largest annual quota increase in 29 years [1]. - Historically, annual quota increases have been around 10%, indicating a strategic move to consolidate China's dominance in the rare earth market [1]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Allies - Australia's Lynas Corporation faces ongoing environmental issues and lacks key technology patents, which hampers its ability to compete with China [3]. - The US's Mountain Pass mine primarily relies on shipping rare earth concentrates to China for processing, with domestic processing costs being over twice that of Chinese companies [3]. Group 4: Technological and Economic Barriers - China holds the majority of advanced rare earth separation and purification patents, creating significant barriers for Western companies attempting to process rare earths independently [3][5]. - Approximately 97% of global rare earth refining capacity is located in China, meaning that even if Australia increases its mining output, most of the extracted materials will still need to be processed in China [3]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - China's ability to control production quotas and its recent termination of special export management clauses from its WTO accession agreement enhance its leverage in the global rare earth market [5]. - The complete supply chain from mining to magnet production gives China a competitive edge, with production costs for key rare earth materials being 30%-40% lower than those of competitors [5][7]. - Establishing a comparable rare earth refining capacity in the West could take over 15 years and require substantial investment, further solidifying China's strategic advantage [5].