闫瑞祥：黄金实破周线支撑后有望中线下跌，欧美关注高位压制

Macroeconomic Factors - The gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, fiscal policies, tariffs, and monetary policies [1] - A potential 60-day ceasefire agreement in the Gaza conflict may temporarily weaken gold's safe-haven demand, but geopolitical complexities could lead to renewed demand [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at resuming tariffs on countries that do not reach agreements by August 1, alleviating some market concerns [1] - A large-scale tax cut bill has been passed, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability due to increased debt expectations [1] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are mixed, with potential cuts anticipated in 2025 despite strong economic data [1] - Overall, the gold market presents both opportunities and challenges, requiring investors to closely monitor trade negotiations and Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed a downward trend last Friday, with a high of 97.117 and a low of 96.831, closing at 96.98 [2] - The market experienced limited volatility due to holiday effects, and the focus is on whether the dollar index can break and stabilize above key resistance levels [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly level indicates resistance around 99, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Last Friday, gold prices generally increased, reaching a high of 3344.95 and a low of 3323.47, closing at 3337.02 [4] - The market saw support in the early session before rebounding, but overall volatility remained low due to holiday effects [4] - The weekly support level is at 3311, and a breakdown below this level could signal a medium-term decline [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend last Friday, with a low of 1.1750 and a high of 1.1787, closing at 1.1772 [7] - The market initially corrected upwards before testing key resistance levels, and while it closed positively, further pressure is anticipated [7] - Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by monthly and weekly analysis, with key support levels at 1.0850 and 1.1450 respectively [7]