张津镭：特朗普关税倒计时，黄金空头能否延续？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of upcoming tariff decisions by the Trump administration on gold prices, highlighting the potential for increased volatility in the gold market depending on the outcomes of trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions. Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent push for the "Big and Beautiful Act" by Trump has led to a decline in the US dollar index, causing spot gold to experience fluctuations, briefly reaching $3340 but failing to maintain that level [1] - The market is closely monitoring the deadline for tariff exemptions on July 9, with potential new tariffs reaching up to 70% for about 12 countries, effective August 1 [1] - If no agreement is reached by July 9, increased risk aversion may support gold prices; conversely, an agreement or extension could lead to price adjustments [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices tested the 20-day moving average but did not sustain above it, indicating significant resistance from the 5 and 10-day moving averages [2] - The current market structure suggests a bearish trend unless gold prices stabilize above the 5 and 10-day moving averages around $3323-$3335 [2] - The market is at a critical turning point, with pressures from strong non-farm data and easing geopolitical tensions, while Fed policy expectations and trade tensions provide support for gold [2] Group 3: Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy is suggested to short gold at $3312-$3315, with a stop loss at $3320 and a target of $3290-$3280, advising to hold positions if the price breaks below these levels [3]