摩根资管：大而美法案料托底美国经济 投资者要聚焦针对行业的关税

Group 1 - Morgan Asset Management estimates that the uncertainty from the tariff war will slow down U.S. economic growth in the second half of this year, but the "Inflation Reduction Act" will provide some support, and inflation is expected to decline to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by the end of next year [1] - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam has provided greater certainty for business planning, but investors should focus on industry-specific tariffs, such as those affecting pharmaceuticals from the EU and automobiles from Japan and South Korea, which may persist after a potential Trump 2.0 administration [1] - The fiscal expansion and regulatory easing from the "Inflation Reduction Act" are expected to take effect later this year and continue to drive U.S. economic growth into next year, providing a positive catalyst for the stock market [1] Group 2 - The AI sector has shown strong recent performance, reflecting market recognition that the increasing prevalence of AI will significantly enhance efficiency, suppress prices, and stimulate consumption [2] - Investment opportunities are gradually shifting towards companies that can effectively apply AI, as AI transitions from a single theme to a tool for improving corporate performance across various industries [2] - Given the current policy and geopolitical uncertainties, investors are advised to diversify across different markets and sectors, with Chinese stocks playing an important role in global asset allocation [2]