Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-07 08:28Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to a slight decrease in Malaysian palm oil production and positive export demand, while concerns about supply increases and declining international oil prices persist [2][3]. Group 1: Production Data - Malaysian palm oil production for June is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with the peninsula increasing by 0.68% and significant reductions in Sabah (11.95%), Sarawak (8.98%), and Borneo (11.24%) [2]. - SPPOMA forecasts a 17.06% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production for the first 10 days of June, with a slight increase of 2.5% for the first 20 days [2]. Group 2: Export Data - High-frequency export data indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to increase by 8.07%-26.4% for the first 10 days of June, with a 10.88%-14.31% increase for the first 20 days [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the slight decrease in June production and good export demand may support palm oil prices, but caution remains due to potential supply increases and softening international oil prices [3]. - Donghai Futures notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which may pressure the oil market and limit the positive impact on international oilseed prices [3]. - The domestic market is seeing increased palm oil imports and commercial inventories, with a weak basis, while the overall market is expected to maintain a range-bound and slightly strong trend [3].