美越“关税局”：越南踩钢丝，美国打明牌，中国亮底牌

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent trade negotiations between the United States and Vietnam, highlighting the significant impact of tariffs on Vietnam's economy and the broader global trade landscape. Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Vietnamese goods, with a drastic increase from 0% to 46% on exports such as clothing, toys, and small appliances, which could severely hinder Vietnam's economy that relies heavily on exports to the U.S. [2] - Vietnam's economy is heavily dependent on foreign trade, with exports accounting for nearly half of its GDP, and 30% of its exports going to the U.S. [2] - The U.S. is using Vietnam as a model for its trade negotiations with other countries, presenting the agreement as a new global trade standard [4] Group 2: Economic Consequences for Vietnam - The agreement reached by Vietnam to reduce tariffs from 46% to 20% is seen as a capitulation rather than a negotiation victory, as it may lead to long-term economic disadvantages [4] - The U.S. has introduced a 40% tax on transshipment goods, effectively blocking Chinese goods from entering the U.S. through Vietnam, which could disrupt Vietnam's emerging industries [4] - The potential for strict checks on the origin of transshipped goods poses a significant challenge for Vietnam, which lacks the necessary technology and experience to comply [4] Group 3: Broader Implications for Global Trade - The U.S. is leveraging Vietnam as a testing ground for its tariff policies, which could have ripple effects across ASEAN countries, raising concerns about being used as pawns in the trade conflict [5] - China's swift response to the U.S. tariffs, including imposing anti-dumping duties on steel products from several countries, indicates a strategic countermeasure to protect its interests [4][5] - The article suggests that the ongoing tariff fluctuations are a facade, with the underlying battle being over global supply chain influence and control [5]