Ultima Markets 黄金周度预测：美国贸易新闻可能推动下一步方向行动

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained the $3300 level, breaking a two-week downtrend, but lacks bullish momentum in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring U.S. trade negotiations, with gold (XAU/USD) starting the week on a solid foundation but losing momentum after three consecutive days of gains [2][5]. - A letter from President Trump to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell urging for lower interest rates contributed to the initial strength of gold, but hawkish comments from Powell limited further gains [3][4]. - Employment data released showed a decline of 33,000 in private sector jobs in June, significantly below the expected increase of 95,000, putting pressure on the dollar and allowing gold to rise slightly [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls (NFP) increasing by 147,000 in June, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, leading to a sharp decline in the probability of a rate cut in July [4][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed dropped from nearly 20% to about 5% following the positive labor market data [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is trading near the lower boundary of a six-month upward return channel at $3300, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 50, indicating a lack of directional momentum [7]. - If gold breaks below $3300, the next support levels are seen at $3285 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and $3185 (100-day simple moving average) [7]. - On the upside, static resistance appears at $3370, followed by $3400 and $3455 [7].