东方财富：维持对港股和A股的“震荡慢牛”格局判断

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has withdrawn HKD 59.1 billion in liquidity, but the HIBOR has only slightly increased, maintaining a high interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US [1] - The HKMA is expected to continue withdrawing HKD to raise HIBOR rates, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market in the short term [1] - Despite short-term liquidity tightening, the global liquidity environment remains ample, suggesting limited impact on market liquidity, with Hong Kong and A-shares still viewed as value opportunities [1] Group 2 - The strategy team at Dongfang Caifu suggests actively monitoring investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to accelerate the exit of backward production capacity and improve ROE levels in related industries [1] - Historical experience indicates that market behavior typically starts with valuation adjustments followed by profit increases, with policy catalysts leading to stock price increases ahead of capacity clearing [1] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong stock market, attention should be given to sectors such as technology, internet, cloud computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have seen their ERP recover to high levels, as well as the steel sector driven by the "anti-involution" policy [2] - In the A-share market, sectors like semiconductor equipment, batteries, steel, fiberglass, and industrial metals are highlighted for rotation opportunities, especially in light of the recent "anti-involution" policy expectations [2] Group 4 - Since June, the Hong Kong dollar has consistently hit the weak end of the convertibility range, prompting the HKMA to withdraw liquidity, which has pressured the short-term performance of the Hong Kong stock market [3] - The AH price difference has narrowed to historically low levels, with the Hang Seng Stock Connect AH premium rate within the mean -1 standard deviation range, reducing the relative attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3] - The performance of the internet technology sector in Hong Kong has been under pressure due to intensified price competition in the e-commerce field, leading to rapid downward adjustments in profit expectations [4]