补贴战遭遇短期自噬？飞鹤上半年营收预降10亿元

Core Viewpoint - Feihe's mid-term performance is under pressure, with significant declines in revenue and net profit expected for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Feihe anticipates revenue between 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 1 billion yuan from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The expected net profit is around 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, representing a decline of 37.2% to 47.6% compared to 1.91 billion yuan in the previous year [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The market reacted sharply to Feihe's performance outlook, with the stock price dropping nearly 15% at opening, reaching a low of 4.65 HKD, with a decline exceeding 18% during the trading session [3]. Group 3: Subsidy Program Impact - The primary reason for the performance decline is attributed to the fertility subsidy program launched in early April, which involves a special fund of 1.2 billion yuan to provide at least 1,500 yuan in milk powder subsidies to eligible pregnant families nationwide [4]. - The subsidy program allows pregnant women over 26 weeks to claim milk powder, and in June, Feihe expanded the subsidy to families with babies under 12 months who have not previously purchased Feihe's infant formula [5]. Group 4: Sales Channel and Inventory Management - The subsidy products can only be shipped directly from the manufacturer to consumers, which has weakened the performance contribution from traditional sales channels [6]. - Some subsidized products have not reached end consumers and have instead entered the market through second-hand platforms, further impacting the pricing structure [7]. - To ensure product freshness and health, Feihe proactively reduced inventory levels of infant formula, with adjustments expected to conclude by the third quarter of 2025 [7]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Market views suggest that the fertility subsidy is seen as a limited sales growth driver and more as a marketing strategy to capture market share and reach a broader potential user base [8]. - Following Feihe's announcement of the subsidy, competitors like Yili and Junlebao quickly introduced their own subsidy programs, indicating intensified competition in the infant formula market [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, Feihe experienced a revenue rebound in 2024 due to the "Dragon Baby" effect, with revenues surpassing 20 billion yuan [9]. - Analysts predict that the birth rate recovery in 2024 may lead to market expansion for infant formula, with a narrowing decline in sales expected in 2025 [10]. - The overall sales of infant formula in the domestic market grew by 2.3% year-on-year from January to April 2025, primarily driven by price increases [11][12]. Group 7: Product Strategy - While sales of ultra-high-end and high-end products have declined, the ultra-high-end segment and milk powder sales have seen a 13.3% year-on-year increase, now accounting for over one-third of the overall market [13]. - Feihe's strategy to upgrade its product mix to higher price points has been a key contributor to its performance, with an average price increase of over 40 yuan per can in 2024 [14]. - The "Xing Fei Fan Zhuo Rui" product line saw a 62% increase in sales, becoming the top-selling product in the infant formula segment [14]. Group 8: Profit Management - Feihe plans to adjust subsidies to maintain profit levels, reducing the "electronic fence" subsidy from 20 yuan to 15 yuan per can, effectively increasing the price by 5 yuan per can [15]. - For the full year, Feihe expects low single-digit growth and aims to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a total dividend payout of no less than 2 billion yuan in 2025, alongside a 1 billion yuan share buyback plan [15].