创新药引领医药板块大涨，下半年投资主线在哪

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly in Hong Kong, has shown significant growth in the first half of 2025, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 47.89% and the A-share pharmaceutical index increasing by 26.74% [1][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector has experienced a strong rebound, particularly in innovative drugs and CXO segments, following a challenging start to the year [1][2]. - The overall revenue of pharmaceutical companies declined by 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with net profit dropping by 11.0% due to high base effects from the previous year [1]. Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug index has outperformed the broader pharmaceutical index, with a year-to-date increase of 60.87% in the Hong Kong market [3]. - The resurgence of the innovative drug sector is attributed to supportive policies and strong fundamentals, with significant business development (BD) transactions exceeding $50 billion by early June [4][5]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent policies have provided a comprehensive support system for innovative drugs, including adjustments to pricing limits and a shift from price-centric evaluations to multi-dimensional assessments [4]. - The introduction of the "Category C Directory" is expected to facilitate the pricing of effective innovative drugs, enhancing market opportunities [4]. CXO Sector - The CXO sector has also shown positive performance, with the CRO concept index rising by 22.18% year-to-date [6]. - The growth of the CXO sector is closely linked to the performance of innovative drug companies, which are expected to drive demand for CXO services as they advance their research and development pipelines [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the innovative drug sector's performance in the second half of 2025, with expectations of revenue growth and a reduction in losses for many companies [8][9]. - The focus on large disease categories and the potential for innovative drugs to replace standard therapies are seen as key drivers for future growth [9][10].