印度划下两条“红线”，美印谈崩了，莫迪前往金砖峰会寻求支持

Core Viewpoint - India has officially submitted documents to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. products, responding to the Trump administration's threats of reciprocal tariffs on over 170 countries, with rates potentially reaching 70% [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Economic Impact - The breakdown of U.S.-India trade negotiations was unexpected but inevitable, as the U.S. set a deadline for tariff delays, while India firmly refused to open its agricultural and dairy sectors [5]. - U.S. demands included increased tariffs on India's labor-intensive industries, which are already struggling, and a complete zero-tariff policy on U.S. products, threatening India's agricultural sector that contributes 16% to GDP and supports 500 million farmers [7][11]. - India's retaliatory measures were communicated to the WTO, emphasizing that U.S. tariff increases violate WTO rules, showcasing a strategic and rule-based response [9]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics and Strategic Positioning - Prime Minister Modi's attendance at the BRICS summit in Brazil coincided with India's trade actions against the U.S., highlighting a balancing act in geopolitical strategy [3][26]. - Modi's government is facing deep-seated vulnerabilities in its economic structure, with manufacturing's GDP share dropping to a historic low of 14.7%, raising concerns about the sustainability of India's manufacturing sector under U.S. pressure [11]. - The agricultural sector's fragility is not only an economic issue but also a political one, as past reforms have led to significant unrest among farmers, indicating the high stakes involved in trade negotiations with the U.S. [13][15]. Group 3: BRICS and Global Economic Shifts - The expansion of BRICS, with the inclusion of energy giants like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is altering the global economic balance, as BRICS now accounts for 31.5% of global GDP and 42% of the population [26]. - India's dual approach in BRICS has raised suspicions among member countries, as it attempts to maintain relations with both the U.S. and BRICS nations, leading to a potential trust crisis [28][30]. - The ongoing geopolitical shifts, including the use of local currencies for trade among BRICS nations, suggest a diminishing reliance on India, which may impact its strategic positioning in the global arena [30].