市场情绪“接近狂热” 美股小盘股涨势亮红灯

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market shows signs of overheating, indicating that the recent rally in high-risk small-cap stocks may soon lose momentum as investor sentiment shifts from panic to near-euphoria [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has surged to a historical high over the past month, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks [1][2] - Bloomberg Intelligence's investor sentiment indicator shifted from panic in April to near-euphoria in June, suggesting that when this indicator reaches euphoric levels, small-cap stocks tend to underperform large-cap stocks [1] - Historical data from 2012 to 2023 shows that when the sentiment indicator reaches euphoric levels, the S&P 500 outperformed the Russell 2000 index by 178 basis points over the following three months [1] Group 2: Small-Cap Stocks Dynamics - Small-cap stocks are generally viewed as cyclical stocks that perform well in the early stages of market uptrends but are sold off during downturns [4] - The recent example of small-cap performance occurred after President Trump's second term began, where the sentiment indicator reached extreme levels, leading to a 7.8% decline in the S&P 500 and a 14% drop in the Russell 2000 over the next three months [4] - Despite the recent resilience in both large-cap and small-cap stocks, there are concerns about the sustainability of small-cap strength [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Strategy - Small-cap stocks are considered important leading indicators, typically declining first during economic turmoil and recovering first after a downturn [5] - The Russell 2000 index recently broke through its long-term trading range, suggesting potential for further gains [5] - Analysts recommend maintaining long positions in small-cap stocks due to stable economic growth forecasts and a favorable financial environment [5] Group 4: Large-Cap Stocks Outlook - As key deadlines for tariff negotiations approach, some strategists advise focusing on larger companies with stronger balance sheets and profitability [6] - Barclays strategist Venu Krishna believes that despite potential double-digit earnings growth for small-cap stocks due to tax reforms, the fundamentals do not support a shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks [6] - Large-cap companies are expected to benefit more from macro growth drivers like artificial intelligence, with improving earnings expectations and stronger profit margins [6]