纯苯（BZ）期货上市首日交易策略

Core Viewpoint - The launch of pure benzene futures contracts at a base price of 5900 CNY/ton is expected to be influenced by supply-demand pressures, oil price trends, and downstream styrene market conditions [1][13]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of pure benzene is under pressure due to high domestic production and inventory levels, with new production capacity exceeding 2.4 million tons expected in the second half of 2025 [5][6]. - Domestic pure benzene imports reached 2.3756 million tons by May 2025, a 62.6% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by reduced demand from the U.S. and a shift in export focus from South Korea to China [5][6]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene is expected to weaken, particularly due to declining profits in styrene and other downstream products, which may limit the support for pure benzene prices [5][10][11]. Oil Market Impact - The oil market is anticipated to experience a downward shift in price levels in the second half of 2025, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors affecting supply [3]. - Concerns over U.S.-China tariff disputes and potential economic downturns in the U.S. may further weaken global oil demand, impacting the pricing dynamics of pure benzene and its derivatives [3]. Trading Strategies - The trading strategy for pure benzene futures suggests a bearish outlook due to significant supply-demand pressures and a slight premium of the futures price over the spot price [2][13]. - The market is expected to exhibit a Contango structure, indicating potential opportunities for cross-period arbitrage [2][13]. - The price spread between styrene and pure benzene is anticipated to narrow, reflecting the weakening profit margins in the styrene market [2][11].