日本米价翻倍，农民却不想种了

Core Points - The ongoing rice price surge in Japan, termed the "Reiwa rice turmoil," has led to public discontent and protests from farmers, despite the country not facing an actual rice shortage [1][2][3] - The price of rice has more than doubled over the past year, with a 1.4 kg bag of glutinous rice rising from 800 yen to 1400 yen [3][4] - The Japanese government has intervened by releasing reserve rice and importing rice from the U.S. to stabilize prices, but prices have continued to rise, with a 60% increase compared to the previous year [6][8][9] Group 1: Current Situation - The price of 5 kg of rice in Tokyo has reached 5072 yen, marking a 2511 yen increase compared to the previous year, indicating a more than double increase [9][10] - Despite the high prices, there is no actual shortage of rice in supermarkets, although prices have surged significantly [10][11] - The traditional agricultural policy in Japan, known as the "reduction and compensation policy," has contributed to the current situation by prioritizing price stability over production increases [12][15] Group 2: Historical Context - Japan's rice production peaked in the 1960s but has since declined due to changing dietary habits influenced by Western culture, with rice consumption dropping from 118.3 kg per person in 1962 to 50.8 kg in 2020 [13][14] - The self-sufficiency rate for rice remains at 100%, but other grains and food products are heavily reliant on imports, leading to a food security concern [14][17] - The "reduction and compensation policy" was implemented to prevent overproduction and stabilize prices, resulting in a significant decrease in rice production from over 1.3 million tons in the late 1960s to 776,000 tons in 2020 [15][17] Group 3: Economic Implications - The average income for rice farmers has been low, with production costs exceeding selling prices, necessitating government subsidies to cover losses [17][19][37] - The aging population of farmers poses a significant challenge, with 70% of farmers over the age of 65 and a lack of successors for many farms [34][35] - The high costs of farming and low profitability have led to a decline in the number of active farmers and abandoned farmland, exacerbating the rice supply issue [39][40] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The Japanese Agricultural Cooperative (JA) plays a crucial role in determining rice prices and has significant political influence, effectively monopolizing the domestic rice market [21][22] - Farmers face high fees and strict quality standards imposed by the JA, leading some to seek alternative sales channels to escape the cooperative's control [26][27] - The current rice price crisis has prompted a shift towards boutique farming, where small-scale farmers focus on high-quality products for niche markets [28][31]