Affirm Stock Skyrockets 146% in a Year: Is it Too Late to Buy?

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) shares have increased by 145.7% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 35.1% and the S&P 500's gain of 12.3% [2] - The company's strong performance is attributed to product innovation, strategic execution, and an expanding base of consumers and merchants [2] Financial Performance - In fiscal Q3 2025, 94% of transactions were from repeat customers, indicating the success of Affirm's short-term payment plans [7] - Total transactions rose by 45.6% year-over-year to 31.3 million in the last reported quarter [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a 101.8% year-over-year improvement to 3 cents per share, with fiscal 2026 earnings expected to reach 73 cents [14] Business Strategy - Affirm is focusing on driving repeat usage as a sustainable growth strategy, which is more cost-effective than customer acquisition [6] - The company is expanding its merchant mix to include essential categories like food, travel, and subscriptions, enhancing daily engagement [8] - Affirm is scaling operations internationally, with plans to enter France, Germany, and the Netherlands through a partnership with Shopify [10] Product Development - Affirm's model provides value to merchants by reducing cart abandonment and increasing average order value, while offering consumers flexible payment options [12] - The company is investing in debit solutions and B2B tools to broaden its product ecosystem and increase transaction frequency [13] Market Position - Affirm is trading at 5.68X forward 12-month sales, slightly below the industry average of 5.85X, but above its three-year median of 3.59X [15] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with legacy players like PayPal and Block expanding aggressively in the BNPL space [20]