现金回报 + 增长投资如何协同？高盛解析中国上市公司的 “钱袋子” 策略

Core Viewpoint - Record cash returns are expected to continue growing in China, driven by policies, conservative cash return traditions, strong cash flow, and ample cash reserves [2][3]. Cash Returns and Growth Investment Synergy - Chinese listed companies are categorized into "Old China" (traditional industries) and "New China" (new economy industries), with differing investor preferences for cash returns and growth investments [3]. - For "Old China" companies, a 10% allocation of cash spending to dividends/buybacks leads to a 14% average valuation increase [3]. - "New China" companies see a more balanced capital allocation, with a 10% cash spending on growth investments resulting in a slight 2% valuation increase [3]. - Growth investment is expected to increase by 1% in 2025, driven mainly by AI technology and the private sector [3]. Surge in Demand for Cash Returns - In a low-interest environment, cash return strategies (dividends, buybacks) are more attractive than bonds, helping to attract yield-oriented investors [4]. - Domestic institutional demand for high-stability yield stocks is estimated to reach 4 trillion yuan [5]. Capital Utilization of China's Cash Strategy - The Shareholder Returns Portfolio includes 30 stocks across 16 GICS industry groups, focusing on companies that actively return cash or respond to policies by increasing dividends [6]. - The portfolio has shown a total return of 43% over the past two years, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 11 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 34 percentage points [6]. High Dividend Policies Driven by Regulations - Following the "Nine Measures" policy in April 2024, companies with low dividend payments are penalized, encouraging more frequent dividend distributions [11]. - In 2024, over 4,300 companies in the A/H/ADR markets paid a total of 2.7 trillion yuan in dividends, a 7% increase from the previous year [11]. - The dividend payout ratio (excluding loss-making companies) increased to 39% in 2024, up from 37% in 2023 [11]. Expansion of Buyback Scale - In 2024, A-share and offshore companies (excluding financials) executed buybacks totaling approximately 1.6 trillion yuan and 300 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 56% and 79% respectively [14]. - The total buyback is expected to reach 600 billion yuan in 2025, driven by low debt costs and high equity costs [15]. Preferences for Dividends and Buybacks - Traditional industries and state-owned enterprises prefer dividends, while new economy sectors favor buybacks [16]. - A significant number of companies engage in both dividends and buybacks, indicating a non-binary choice in capital return strategies [18]. Lessons from Japan and South Korea - Japan and South Korea have successfully attracted foreign investment by prioritizing shareholder returns and implementing transparent reforms [20]. Investor Preferences for Cash Returns - Domestic institutional demand for high-yield stocks is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, with significant allocations from insurance companies and pension funds [21]. - Government-owned enterprises increasing dividend payouts can provide substantial revenue for the government, with a potential 10% increase in dividend payout rates yielding an additional 220 billion yuan [21].