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高盛:预计澳洲联储7月将降息25个基点,终端利率或降至3.10%

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% in July, with further cuts expected in August and November, leading to a terminal rate of 3.10% [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point cut in the cash rate to 3.60% during the July meeting, a prediction fully priced in by the market [1] - The expectation is for consecutive rate cuts in August and a final cut in November, resulting in a terminal rate of 3.10% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Weak GDP data and a slowdown in private demand suggest a risk of entering a deeper easing cycle [1] - The tone of private demand is expected to gradually become more moderate, while the labor market remains described as "tight" [1] Group 3: Policy Statement Expectations - The latter part of the policy statement is anticipated to remain largely unchanged, emphasizing inflation targets and a somewhat "restrictive" policy stance [1] - The phrase "severe downside scenario" may be removed due to the lack of updated monetary policy forecast statements [1]