特朗普关税风暴下的英国资本撤离：一场双向博弈的商业寒冬

Group 1: Policy Impact - The "Big and Beautiful Act" introduced by Trump in 2025 poses significant challenges for UK companies, particularly through the imposition of up to 20% retaliatory tariffs on what are deemed "unfair foreign taxes" [3] - The automotive industry in the UK is particularly affected, with Jaguar Land Rover facing increased costs of several thousand dollars per vehicle due to a 25% tariff on imported cars, leading to a pause in expansion plans in the U.S. [3][4] - The Scottish whisky industry has seen an 8% decline in exports to the U.S. due to a 10% tariff, with market share being eroded by French cognac [3] Group 2: Investment Confidence - A dramatic drop in investment confidence is evident, with only 2% of UK executives considering the U.S. an attractive investment destination, while confidence in the domestic market has surged from -12% to +13% [4] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the U.S. fell to $52.8 billion in Q1 2025, the lowest since the pandemic began in 2022, indicating a significant capital withdrawal [4] Group 3: Industry Shifts - Energy-intensive companies are relocating production back to the UK or Europe due to the high electricity costs in the U.S., which are four times higher than in the UK [5] - The technology sector is experiencing a notable shift, with UK quantum computing startups being acquired by U.S. firms, prompting the UK government to invest £500 million in quantum technology over the next four years [5] Group 4: Post-Brexit Challenges - Post-Brexit, the UK faces dual challenges from Trump's policies and EU negotiations, with FDI projects declining by 12% in 2024, marking an 18-year low [6] - The UK is at a disadvantage in negotiations, having to accept "poison pill clauses" in trade agreements that exclude Chinese companies from key supply chains, further weakening competitiveness [6] Group 5: Strategic Capital Movements - UK companies are initiating a "de-Americanization" process, with firms like AstraZeneca and Stellantis shifting investments from the U.S. to Germany and Poland [7] - International capital is also reflecting this trend, with Canadian and Australian funds reducing U.S. asset exposure and increasing investments in UK renewable energy projects [7] Group 6: Future Outlook - The policy shifts and capital movements indicate a potential restructuring of global capital dynamics, with a focus on regional collaboration, technological sovereignty, and institutional resilience [8] - The ongoing changes may lead to the emergence of a new business paradigm that prioritizes stability over political risk, suggesting a shift in global investment strategies [8]