上半年人民币汇率韧性持续增强，下半年如何走？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore yuan appreciating by 1.82% and 2.45% respectively in the first half of the year, supported by a weaker US dollar index and domestic economic recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The US dollar index fell by 10.79% in the first half of the year, contributing to the appreciation of the yuan [1]. - The central parity rate of the yuan increased by 298 basis points during the same period [1]. - Analysts believe that the weakening of the US dollar and domestic economic policies have provided strong support for the yuan's resilience [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Experts predict a moderate appreciation of the yuan against the dollar in the second half of the year, supported by multiple favorable factors [3]. - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain stability in the yuan's exchange rate [3]. - Domestic growth policies are expected to continue supporting the yuan, with forecasts suggesting the dollar-yuan exchange rate will fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.3 [3][4]. Group 3: External Influences - The ongoing US tariffs on Chinese exports pose challenges, but the impact on the yuan will depend on domestic consumption policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations [4].