水泥行业迎史上最严整顿！2025年底前必须完成产能整改，36亿吨过剩产能如何化解？

Group 1 - The cement industry is undergoing the most stringent regulatory actions in history to address the long-standing issue of "capacity mismatch" [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a draft requiring companies to complete capacity rectification applications by the end of 2025, making government-approved capacity a core requirement for production licenses [1][3] - The China Cement Association has also mandated strict checks on the discrepancies between actual and registered capacities, with deadlines for compliance [1] Group 2 - The mismatch between registered and actual capacities has become a chronic issue, disrupting market order and intensifying internal competition [3] - The national cement capacity utilization rate has dropped below 53% in 2024, marking a historical low, with demand expected to decline by nearly 10% in 2024 and 5% to 8% in 2025 [3] - Current national cement capacity exceeds 3.6 billion tons, with clinker capacity over 1.8 billion tons, leading to a severe overcapacity situation [3] Group 3 - The cement industry has seen a significant reduction in new capacity due to falling demand and prices, with 12 clinker production lines totaling 17.67 million tons of annual capacity halted since 2025 [4] - The operating rate of clinker kilns has dropped to around 50%, with further declines anticipated as demand continues to decrease [4] Group 4 - The industry is exploring a combination of market-driven and policy-guided approaches to address overcapacity, focusing on balancing supply and demand and optimizing resource allocation [5] - Industry consolidation is viewed as a fundamental solution, with calls for supportive policies to encourage mergers and acquisitions among companies in the same region [5] - Since the end of 2024, merger and acquisition activities in the cement industry have accelerated, with several notable transactions announced [5][6] Group 5 - Conch Cement has indicated that the industry is entering a significant consolidation window amid weakening demand and increasing competition, planning to pursue quality acquisition projects in low-concentration markets [6]