敏感时刻，美股二季报来了

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming Q2 earnings reports will be crucial for the S&P 500 index, especially in light of recent tariff increases and their impact on corporate profitability [1][2] - Analysts expect a significant slowdown in year-over-year earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, dropping from 12% in Q1 to 4% in Q2, primarily due to shrinking profit margins [2] - The earnings reports will provide insights into how companies are managing tariff costs, whether by absorbing them or passing them on to consumers, which will directly affect profit margins and stock performance [1][2] Group 2 - The concentrated earnings release period for Q2 will last from July 15 to August 1, with 73% of S&P 500 constituents expected to report [2] - Goldman Sachs trader John Flood indicates that despite a strong market performance, there are underlying vulnerabilities, including narrow market breadth and high valuation levels compared to historical averages [2] - Current effective tariff rates have increased by approximately 10% to 13%, with expectations of a further rise to 17% [2][3]