美国将“对等关税”暂缓期延长至8月1日，有色金属后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The recent extension of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has created a negative sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market, with concerns about trade negotiations and their potential impact on global economic growth and commodity demand [2][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is declining, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent tariff threats from the Trump administration [2][4]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, indicating a strong labor market, which has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and suppressed risk asset prices [3]. - The market is currently entering a demand off-season, with a noticeable decline in demand for photovoltaic components and household appliances, leading to an accumulation of social inventory for various non-ferrous metals [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Policy and Trade Negotiations - Trump's tariff threats are affecting non-ferrous metal prices through increased market pessimism and heightened risk aversion [4]. - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its trade partners are critical, as failure to reach agreements could significantly impact exports from related countries and regions [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market should closely monitor the economic recovery of major economies, particularly the U.S. and China, as this will influence demand for non-ferrous metals [4][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, with social inventory gradually increasing [3]. - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying fundamentals; for instance, zinc prices are pressured by rising processing fees and recovering production, while copper production is declining due to lower processing fees and disruptions in overseas smelting [5]. - The second half of the year may see structural changes in domestic consumption, with potential support from infrastructure investments, despite a slowdown in certain sectors like real estate and household appliances [5].