摩根大通：全球油气上游支出或下降

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global upstream oil and gas spending is expected to decline for the first time since 2020, with a projected decrease of 1.1% to $543 billion in 2025 [1][2] - Analysts indicate that U.S. shale capital expenditures are expected to decrease by 1.9% in 2025, which is less than the 3.2% decline anticipated for 2024 [1] - Concerns over U.S. energy policy uncertainty are prevalent among oil industry executives, as indicated by a negative shift in the business activity index from 3.8 in Q1 to -8.1 in Q2 [1] Group 2 - All regions except the Middle East plan to reduce upstream oil and gas capital allocation in 2025, with Asia expected to see the largest decline of 4.8% [2] - Despite conservative capital plans, global liquid fuel supply is projected to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2025 [2] - The stability in production levels is attributed to efficiency improvements and capacity enhancements that have lowered unit costs, despite significant reductions in investment and drilling activities since 2014 [2]