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AI芯片“配比率”不断提升，高盛看好光模块增长，聚焦“一二线厂商估值差收敛”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-08 02:26

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI technology is significantly increasing the ratio of AI chips to optical modules, which is becoming a key driver for the growth of the optical module industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their sales forecasts for 800G optical transceivers to 19.9 million and 33.5 million units for 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing increases of 10% and 58% [1][4]. - The market size for optical modules is expected to grow by 60% and 52% in 2025 and 2026, reaching $12.73 billion and $19.37 billion [4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The increasing ratio of AI chips (like GPUs and ASICs) to optical transceivers is a core driver of industry growth, with ratios rising from 1:3 for H100 to 1:4.5 for B300, and even reaching 1:8 in certain ASIC architectures [4]. - This trend indicates that even if AI chip sales slow down, the demand for optical modules will continue to grow due to the increased ratio, providing stronger cyclical resilience for the industry [4]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The report suggests that the focus of market discussions has shifted from growth intensity in 2025 to sustainability in 2026 and 2027, with investors still valuing optical module stocks at historical low P/E ratios of 10-15 times [5]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the growth potential from the increased ratio could support higher valuation levels, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi gaining attention due to their low current P/E ratios compared to historical averages [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain Opportunities - The surge in demand for 800G modules is causing capacity constraints for leading manufacturers, potentially leading to order overflow to second-tier manufacturers [6]. - Huagong Technology is identified as a potential beneficiary, with a monthly production capacity exceeding 100,000 units and progress in testing 800G products with U.S. clients, which could lead to a significant increase in net profit for 2026 [6].