专家：不允许房价跌太多，受不了，拯救楼市须放大招了？

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is at a critical juncture, with uncertainty about how much prices will drop before stabilizing, which is a key goal for 2025 [1][3] Market Adjustment - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with predictions of a 10%-20% potential decline in national housing prices and an adjustment period lasting 1-3 years [3] - The adjustment may vary significantly by region, with first-tier cities remaining relatively stable while third and fourth-tier cities face higher risks of price declines [3] Factors Influencing Prices - Various factors, including declining birth rates and an aging population, contribute to a decrease in demand for housing, leading to an oversupply situation [3] - The current policies have reduced speculative buying, which previously supported high housing prices [3] Economic Implications - A significant drop in housing prices could disproportionately affect low- to middle-income families, for whom real estate constitutes 60%-70% of their wealth, while high-income families are less impacted [7][8] - The importance of stabilizing housing prices is emphasized due to its impact on multiple industries and employment [5][7] Policy Actions - Recent government actions have focused on promoting a stable and healthy real estate market, with a call for more targeted and effective policies to stabilize expectations and activate demand [8][9] - The necessity of synchronizing the recovery of the economy with the stabilization of the real estate market is highlighted, as both are interdependent [9][11]