7月开始，更猛的楼市政策要来了！房价会涨吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the central bank indicates a shift in focus towards stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the revitalization of existing properties and land, rather than merely preventing further decline [1][4]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Stabilization - The central bank's new statement highlights the need to "consolidate the stability of the real estate market," suggesting a recognition of positive trends in the sector [4][5]. - There is a notable increase in the acquisition of idle land, with 26 provinces and cities announcing projects covering 4,259 plots, amounting to approximately 477.65 billion yuan [6][7]. - The land acquisition efforts are seen as a way to clean up the market, reducing excess inventory and creating a healthier market environment [7]. Group 2: Land Auction and Price Trends - Data from the China Index Academy shows that the average floor price for residential land in 300 cities rose to 4,852 yuan per square meter from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [8]. - Major cities are experiencing significant increases in land transaction values, with Hangzhou's land sales reaching 119.88 billion yuan by June 11, 2025, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [9]. - The rising land prices are contributing to an upward trend in new home prices, with many cities seeing continuous price increases [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The stabilization of the real estate market is characterized by a reduction in new home inventory and an increase in the supply of quality land, which is expected to enhance overall new home prices [11][12]. - The second-hand housing market is primarily focused on maintaining transaction volumes, although prices are currently in a state of price-volume trade-off [12]. - The recovery in the real estate market is largely structural and concentrated in major cities, with a significant shift in supply-demand dynamics [12].