动力电池：以循环计划破局“内忧外患”

Core Viewpoint - The development of the power battery industry in China faces significant challenges, including external pressures from the EU's green barriers, domestic resource supply chain risks, and chaotic recycling markets, which are undermining the industry's foundation [1][2]. Industry Challenges - The power battery industry is at a critical juncture due to the impending wave of battery retirements, with predictions indicating that by 2025, retired batteries in China will reach 1.04 million tons, and by 2030, this figure may rise to 3.5 million tons [2]. - China's reliance on foreign strategic mineral resources is high, with projected foreign dependency rates for nickel, cobalt, and lithium reaching 86%, 98%, and 70% respectively by 2024 [2]. - The upcoming EU Battery and Waste Battery Regulation, effective in 2027, mandates high recycling rates for various materials, posing a significant challenge for China's electric vehicle industry [2]. Recycling Market Dynamics - The number of battery recycling companies in China has surged, with 15,202 new registrations in 2025; however, over 70% of retired batteries are being intercepted by illegal workshops, creating a detrimental cycle for the industry [3]. Global Energy Circular Economy Plan - The "Global Energy Circular Economy Plan" aims to transform the battery industry from a linear to a circular economy through four key action guidelines: 1. Restructuring the value chain to enhance resource efficiency and circular flow [4]. 2. Redesigning products to incorporate circular economy principles, focusing on modular design and ease of disassembly for recycling [4]. 3. Reconstructing business models to shift from traditional sales to service-oriented models, including battery swapping and battery banks [4]. 4. Improving the recycling loop by establishing an efficient and large-scale recycling system to reduce reliance on mineral extraction [5]. Economic Opportunities - The circular economy model is expected to enhance the lifecycle value of each battery by 30% to 50%, while reducing the carbon footprint of battery manufacturing by 20% to 30% [6]. - The global battery recycling market is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2040, indicating significant economic potential [6]. Global Leadership and Collaboration - The launch of the "Global Energy Circular Economy Plan" signifies China's transition from a participant to a leader in global green development, fostering a new model of "value export" that emphasizes sustainable development and international cooperation [6][7].