Juno markets:仍未摆脱零利率下限可能性，利率降至零的概率为9%

Core Insights - The probability of the federal funds rate reaching the "zero lower bound" (ZLB) in the next seven years is estimated at 9%, with current rate uncertainty exacerbating this risk [2] - Despite higher expected interest rates compared to the past decade, significant uncertainty remains, keeping the ZLB risk notable [2] - Empirical evidence suggests that changes in interest rate expectations are the primary drivers of ZLB risk [2] Historical Context - The Federal Reserve first lowered rates to the 0%-0.25% range during the 2008 financial crisis to stimulate economic recovery, maintaining this level for seven years [3] - Rates were again reduced to zero in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, lasting for two years [3] - Recent research indicates that the risk of returning to ZLB persists, influenced by complex economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and global economic sluggishness [3]