【BCR汇市观察】美元“软着陆”还是“失速”？关注美联储下一步

Group 1 - The focus of the global financial market has shifted back to the USD as investors are concerned about the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the potential for a soft landing of the US economy [1] - The market sentiment has changed from a bullish outlook to a more cautious stance, with the USD index fluctuating around the 105 mark [1] Group 2 - Expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy have increased due to ongoing declines in US inflation and a cooling labor market, with over 70% of market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2] - The USD index has retreated from its yearly high of 107 to around 105, leading to a rebound in non-USD currencies, particularly the Euro, Pound, and Yen [2] Group 3 - Despite the USD's decline, the US economy remains resilient, with strong consumer spending and technology sector investments, suggesting that any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be gradual and aimed at risk management rather than responding to a recession [3] - Future USD movements are likely to reflect a range-bound pattern, benefiting from economic stability while being constrained by rate cut expectations [3] Group 4 - The current USD pullback presents new opportunities for investors, with non-USD currencies expected to continue their rebound in the short term [4] - Long-term, global risk aversion is likely to support the USD's position, especially amid ongoing geopolitical risks [4] - Investors are advised to monitor key data releases such as CPI, PPI, and non-farm payrolls, and adjust their positions flexibly to avoid chasing market trends [4]